Illinois could lose $46 billion in federal Medicaid funding over the next 10 years due to President Donald Trump’s tax and spending law, according to an analysis released this week by KFF.
Using the Congressional Budget Office’s latest estimates, the analysis report found Illinois tied with Nevada and Oregon for second among the most-affected states, with funding potential falling by 19 percent over the decade.
Only Louisiana, at 20 percent, stands to lose a large percentage of funding.
Illinois could lose between $34 billion and $57 billion, which the KFF said varies based on how the state responds.
“States could make further Medicaid cuts, which would result in spending reductions greater than is estimated here and further reduce states’ Medicaid spending,” KFF said in its analysis. “Alternatively, states could increase their spending on Medicaid to mitigate the effects of federal cuts, which could result in spending reductions that are smaller.”
The law, signed earlier this month by Trump, would reduce Medicaid spending by around $911 billion over the next decade to offset the costs of extending expiring tax cuts. It would increase the ranks of the uninsured by more than 10 million.
The majority of federal savings stem from Medicaid work requirements for some adults, as well as limits on states’ use of provider taxes to draw down more federal dollars.
It also restricts state-directed payments to providers and increases barriers for enrolling in and renewing Medicaid coverage.